Upfront with NZALPA President
NZALPA President Andrew Ridling
Along with the majority of the Western world, here in New Zealand we have entered the endemic stage of the COVID-19 outbreak: the virus is widespread, is significantly less fatal than it was in 2020, and is spurring only limited changes in public behaviour. As New Zealand continues its journey toward endemic COVID it provides a time for self-reflection, to re-establish our place in the aviation industry and to determine a flight path to where we, as air traffic controllers and pilots, want our industry to go over the next 20 years.
First of all, the rebuilding of our industry has allowed NZALPA to almost completely achieve the important strategic objective of returning all of our furloughed and redundant pilots to the positions they lost during the pandemic. The only exception is some of our Virgin colleagues, who are still looking for work as the industry grows back.
The global outlook continues to look positive for aviation and tourism as countries have lifted their pandemic restrictions. Unfortunately, talk of a global recession and oil supply concerns threaten to thwart the anticipated recovery. Currently, New Zealand’s airlines are taking a conservative approach as unseasonable head winds are now being forecast to be on the horizon.
A major question facing the industry is when will the 2019 demand levels return? For passenger recovery, media commentators estimate a range from as early as 2022 to 2024 and beyond. For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilisation rather than passenger numbers. The global in-service fleet has already recovered in size to 76 percent of the pre-COVID levels. In China (where the outbreak was earlier and, arguably, more directly controlled) the in-service fleet is already back at 99 percent. However, aircraft utilisation, resulting block hours and services flown, still lag historic 2019 levels globally. The demand for pilots is expected to precede the recovery of passenger growth by two to three quarters.
The fundamental challenge now facing the executive teams of most aviation operators is that New Zealand’s aviation industry is, once again, poised for expected substantial growth after being reduced to near oblivion during the last two and a half years. By early 2023 to 2024, global demand for travel is expected to reach its 2019 pre-pandemic peak. From there, the outlook is for steady expansion through the rest of the decade at rates that even exceed increases in gross domestic product.
The latest Oliver Wyman update to its Global Fleet and MRO Forecast 2022 – 2032 calculates that the aviation fleet will top its January 2020 apex of close to 28,000 planes in the first half of 2023. After that, they are projecting compound annual growth of 4.1 percent, which should push the fleet to 38,100 aircraft by the beginning of 2032.
These growth challenges will test the industry’s resilience and profitability. The big question aviation faces while moving forward is not the industry’s ability to grow, but rather its ability to grow profitably.
Of importance, as we look forward to the aviation rebuild, New Zealand’s pilots and air traffic controllers expect open, honest and transparent communication to be the foundation on which the future house of management is built. Prior to thepandemic, these foundations were not on solid ground in several of the employers we work for. If I reflect on the management teams that dealt with NZALPA prior to COVID, it is hard to recognise a good manager who was not also a good communicator.
If there is one lesson to be taken out of the recent pandemic, it is that an airline and its pilots are more entwined than has ever been recognised in the past. (I would suggest this would be self-evident with air traffic controllers as well). As pilots, we have recognised that a team-based management approach provides the most successful outcomes. As an organisation, NZALPA has continued supporting this for the last three years.
This team-based approach to management, whether used on the flight deck or in the tower, has been recognised for some time as not meant to undermine the Captain’s role, but rather to acknowledge that controlling a modern-day aircraft is beyond the skills of a single person. Everyone on the flight deck must have the right to speak up – and is encouraged and facilitated to do so.
Without relitigating recent pre- pandemic events, it is up to the executive and management teams of each of our aviation organisations to look at themselves and to recognise the benefits of engagement with frontline pilot and air traffic control staff. “Managing up” and only passing on selected information, while accepting no responsibility, is not acceptable in a post-COVID world.
All players in this safety-focused industry need to take responsibility for their actions. As the old leadership saying states, “Give credit and take responsibility.” It goes with the territory. The unsatisfactory managers that are well-known to this industry are all too willing to “throw others under the bus” to deflect negative attention from themselves. I hope this becomes a thing of the past.
The pandemic also exposed a number of ineffectual parties and players who, invariably, were less concerned with “doing the right thing” for their employer than with preserving their own career interests. There is no place for grandiose opinions, or lack of empathy for others that was at play prior to the start of the pandemic. It should be self-evident that this type of unproductive behaviour is highly inappropriate for the leaders of aviation in New Zealand operating in a post-pandemic environment.
COVID has tipped the traditional business models on their heads, and it is now clear that businesses who adopt a collaborative approach to decision-making, particularly in high stakes situations, will be more likely to succeed. Over the last three years, NZALPA has demonstrated that this approach can be used successfully to help businesses overcome the most difficult obstacles in order to survive, revive and, ultimately, thrive.
After watching another very successful Black Ferns team win the Rugby World Cup, a rugby cliché comes to mind that teams need to “earn the right to go wide”. In other words, you cannot just send the ball to the speedy wingers – you first need to do the work upfront in order to provide the opportunities to succeed and win. NZALPA and our members have put the work in over the last three years and, as President, I can say we have earned that “right to go wide”. During the most challenging and dark days of the pandemic, when aviation was placed into a coma with the closing of New Zealand’s borders and while the industry lost billions of dollars, NZALPA provided a leadership platform to ensure our members had a voice at every table throughout the industry. We provided solutions to problems when no one else could see them. We ensured our members were represented in every forum. The outcomes achieved are a testament to the amount of work that we put in, on behalf of the membership.
Our collaboratively based relationship (although strained at times) with our largest employer – the Air New Zealand group – has been in place for the last six years. This has certainly proved its worth to both organisations during the pandemic. The Air Traffic Controllers have recently established a relationship agreement with their employer, Airways, that provides parameters to ensure their discussions become productive and have a problem-solving focus. This relationship agreement has the ability to re-engage the Air Traffic Controllers with Airways and I remain hopeful that this will be a turning point in how they deal with each other.
NZALPA is proud to have developed productive relationships at all levels of Government, including with senior managers at the Ministry of Transport and the Civil Aviation Authority. The leadership shown in both of these organisations has been exceptional and (for the most part) hard to fault. However, these organisations are not immune to some of the challenges highlighted above. We have, therefore, advocated to be more involved earlier on in the decision-making process. It is our desire that a more collaborative approach will deliver better outcomes.
Self and organisational awareness is a vital skill that has proven to be what sets high performers apart in the workplace – especially in the aviation industry. It is a core
tenet of emotional intelligence and describes the ability to understand an organisation’s strengths, weaknesses, and managerial tendencies.
With this in mind, it is the Board of Management’s intention not to just regrow NZALPA to where we were prior to the pandemic. The Board and the Principal Officers intend to undertake a complete review of our activities. It was Henry Ford that penned the quote “If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got”. Sometimes asking uncomfortable questions means making tough decisions about an existing strategy or belief, and then having the leadership to abandon that direction completely. NZALPA needs to capitalise on the successes we have achieved during COVID and look to the next 20 years of the membership. We will be asking those uncomfortable questions. We have asked a third party to review our operation, look at our Rules and advise me and the Board what changes need to be put in place to produce a more effective NZALPA.
NZALPA as an organisation has a lot of new members, and it is hard to imagine how members can perform or get involved if they don’t understand NZALPA’s purpose and direction. We need to clearly articulate NZALPA’s strategic goals and motivate our members to drive NZALPA as an organisation to the next level. For the last six years, I have maintained that NZALPA’s core principle is that we are a “member-led and, hence, a member-driven organisation”. It is not forgotten by the Board of Management or me that “It is the members that own ALPA”.
As a member, every air traffic controller and pilot has an obligation to take an active interest in what they want their organisation to achieve. A lot of our representatives have worked very hard over the last three years and will be taking a step back at our Annual Conference in June 2023. This will be a time of positive change as new blood steps in to drive our organisation to the next level. It is prior to Christmas that those that have thought about putting their hands up to take office should start asking questions. I am more than happy to provide any advice or answer any questions from those who are interested in contributing towards the running of our organisation – after all, “the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.”
Finally, as the aviation recovery continues, it is important to reflect on those pre-pandemic issues that will once again become areas of concern for the industry and which NZALPA will, therefore, start to focus on in 2023.
Prior to COVID, securing a pipeline of new pilots had been a primary concern for airlines around the world. In a 2019 Oliver Wyman poll of flight operations leaders, 62 percent listed a shortage of qualified pilots as a key risk. The root cause of the expected shortage varied by region. In the United States, it was an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.
In China and other regions, where a burgeoning middle class is demanding air travel, the struggle was to expand capacity fast enough. This expectation of a pilot shortage is again beginning to plague the global airline.
With the recent conclusion and outcomes from COP27 (the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties) there is a much greater focus on climate change. Although positive for employment opportunities, the envisaged increase in global aviation fleet numbers comes with some pessimism, as the growth does threaten to aggravate the emissions challenges that the industry faces.
Although dwarfed by emissions from road transportation and other productions areas, aviation accounts for somewhere around 2.3 percent of total carbon dioxide emissions globally. That said, between 2022 and 2032, the global airline fleet is expected to grow by 49 percent in response to travel demand. This will mean more greenhouse gases from aviation in a period when the industry has limited options for cutting those emissions. This in turn, will place greater urgency on the need for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Airlines have cut emissions in half since 1990 through improvements in aircraft design, aerodynamics, materials, and overall operating efficiencies. However, these improvements in efficiencies have struggled to keep pace with demand.
Less than 1 percent of jet fuel consumed today is SAF, and while many airlines have pledged to push their usage up to 10 percent, there isn’t enough production capacity currently to fulfil that need. The alternative is the use of SAF as an interim fix – unfortunately with the very limited supply of SAF, it has a cost of three times that of jet fuel.
As we head into Christmas many of you have earned a very well-deserved break, particularly our pilot trainers and instructors who have worked tirelessly to ensure our employers were able to scale back up as quickly as possible. It is time for each member to sit back and reflect upon the last three years – none of us could have ever envisaged such crisis.
I have been reliably informed that Santa has chosen not to introduce a new flight planning system at such a busy part of the year. He and the reindeer will be attending a training course once the busy season is over and the system is well developed and tested.
We have come so far this year. Christmas is a time to celebrate, reflect and spend time with friends and family. I am very grateful that the majority of our colleagues,
who spent the last two Christmas’s wondering what directions their chosen profession would take, are now back with us so quickly. Please enjoy this time and remain safe over the summer period.
<< December 2022 Impacts of the New Incorporated Societies Act - Secretary, James Jarvis >>